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Lecture 5

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chris wiggins edited this page May 7, 2018 · 14 revisions

readings 2018-02-12

  1. Desrosieres, Alain. "Correlation and the Realism of Causes," in The Politics of Large Numbers: A History of Statistical Reasoning. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1998, ch 4.

  2. Galton, Francis. “Typical Laws of Heredity,” Royal Institution of Great Britain. Notices of the Proceedings at the Meetings of the Members 8 (February 16, 1877): 282ff.

  3. Stephen J. Gould, Mismeasure of Man, ch. 3

OPTIONAL

  1. Student (W. S. Gosset), "The Probable Error of a Mean," Biometrika, 6 (1908), 1-25. (https://www.jstor.org/stable/2331554)

  2. Gillham, Nicholas. "Sir Francis Galton and the Birth of Eugenics." Ann. Rev. Genet. 35 (2001): 83-101.

2017

readings

1) Desrosières, Alain. "Correlation and the Realism of Causes," in The

Politics of Large Numbers: A History of Statistical Reasoning. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1998, ch 4.

outline of Desrosières ch 4

  1. (2pp) Intro
  2. (7pp) Pearson
  3. (9pp) Galton
  • Box: "Social Classes and [sic] Genetic Worth"
  • Box: Gould quote
  • Box: Quincunx
  • Box: Galton's regression curve as an elliptical joint distribution
  • Box: 2-stage Quincunx
  1. (6pp) Calculations
  2. (8pp) 5 Englishmen
  3. (9pp) Controversies on realism
  4. (8pp) Yule and realism
  5. (2pp) Spearman on "General Intelligence"

2) Galton, Francis. “Typical Laws of Heredity,” Royal Institution of Great

Britain. Notices of the Proceedings at the Meetings of the Members 8 (February 16, 1877): 282ff.

3) Stephen J. Gould, Mismeasure of Man, ch. 3

OPTIONAL

4) Student (W. S. Gosset), "The Probable Error of a Mean," Biometrika, 6

(1908), 1-25. (https://www.jstor.org/stable/2331554)

5) Gillham, Nicholas. "Sir Francis Galton and the Birth of Eugenics." Ann.

Rev. Genet. 35 (2001): 83-101.

discussion

broca: bad data practice

  • logical fallacies vs bad stats/bad math
    • e.g., circularity -preview: "ranking" as illposed

bad blood / obscured+censored origins of statistics of statistics

  • "regression"
  • "co-relation"

from Quetelet to Galton

  • the normal curve (and relations to "the bell curve")
    • as error
    • as ranking
  • description+prescription (and preview: correlation v. causality)
    • preview: yule + multivariate regression
    • link: realism vs effective models
    • impact OF law (e.g., Yule is modeling Poor law of 1864 (?))
    • impact ON law
    • untouched: should society be dictaed science
    • preview: pearson the mathematizer

not discussed:

Quetelet

  • science envy
  • "policy" and "social physics"

Desrosières

  • reality of society

  • what we talk about when we talk about averages

    • Statue example: corrupt versions of a perfect reality
    • objective mean: measuring a single object with errors
    • subjective mean: average over a collection of members of a defined population
    • arithmetic mean: average of a feature without any grounds for positing a distribution (and without meaningful cause)

  • causal story in the above: ``constant cause"

  • statistics as measurements of morality

    • crime rates

Levels of analysis in Desrosières

  • philosophy of science/epistemology
  • mathematical technique
  • ontology: what the world is made up of
  • disciplines
    • sociology and social physics
    • public health
  • social/political framing
    • debates on expertise
    • quantification of arts
      • medicine
      • moneyball
      • politics and politicking
  • in history

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