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Lecture 4
Feb 5, 2018
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Gigerenzer, Gerd, ed. The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life. Ideas in Context. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989, Section 1.6 ("Risk and Insurance") ( https://data-ppf.slack.com/files/U3SJU2P6W/F91BC4QJY/eoc_1.6.pdf ) 8 very quick-moving and readable pages from a very quick-moving and readable book.
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Quetelet, Adolphe “Preface” and “Introductory,” A Treatise on Man (1842), ( https://data-ppf.slack.com/files/U3SJU2P6W/F90N4JU56/quetelet_pref_intro.pdf ) (full book available via https://ia801409.us.archive.org/27/items/treatiseonmandev00quet/treatiseonmandev00quet_bw.pdf ) A "game changer", one would now call it. Enjoy!
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Porter, Theodore. The Rise of Statistical Thinking, 1820-1900 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1986), chap. 2 (40-70) + 100-109. ( https://data-ppf.slack.com/files/U3SJU2P6W/F92DJPW6B/porter-on-quetelet.pdf ) Porter (one of the authors from the Empire of Chance) with lots of context around Quetelet's role in shaping our thinking about data, people, and policy.
OPTIONAL
Desrosières, Alain. "Averages and the Realism of Aggregates" in The Politics of Large Numbers: A History of Statistical Reasoning. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1998, ch 3. ( https://data-ppf.slack.com/files/U3SJU2P6W/F90N4JU56/quetelet_pref_intro.pdf ) Desrosières on Galton through Durkheim.